Browsing » October 2012

“rutenso” – the art of working with complex systems

By Mark McKergow It’s tempting to think of complex systems as being like simple systems, only more complicated. This is a mistake, of course – complicated systems have many elements but are nonetheless comprehensible in everyday terms.  A 747 airliner is hugely complicated, but is designed and engineered to do certain things in certain ways, […]

Why the New Funding For Lending Scheme Won’t Work Either

By Greg Fisher If the managers of UK banks believe a recession is imminent then they will be cautious about lending.  Similarly, if these same managers think the future state of the economy is highly uncertain, they will also be cautious in making lending decisions.  Either way, prudent lending is not conducive to an economic […]

Macro-Economic Modelling and Its Uses

By Bridget Rosewell An International Macro Symposium conference this week hosted by the ESRC and the Oxford Martin School has brought home to me how little things have changed in some quarters.  There is still a belief that with some tweaks the old modelling frameworks can capture the elements that were missing before the crisis, […]

Is this a pleb I see before me? Reality and perception in the markets

By Paul Ormerod Andrew Mitchell, the Government Chief Whip, remains in some difficulty after his exchange with the police at the gates of Downing Street.  At the heart of the incident, there is an objective reality.  Either he used the word pleb, or he didn’t.  Either the police were officious jobsworths, or they were the […]